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nerc - NERC 2022 Long-Term Reliability Assessment

 Electricity is a key component of the fabric of modern society and the Electric Reliability Organization (ERO) Enterprise serves to strengthen that fabric. The vision for the ERO Enterprise, which is comprised of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and the six Regional Entities, is a highly reliable and secure North American bulk power system (BPS). Our mission is to assure the effective and efficient reduction of risks to the reliability and security of the grid.

Download NERC 2022 Long-Term Reliability Assessment

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This 2022 LTRA is the ERO’s independent assessment and comprehensive report on the adequacy of planned BPS resources to reliably meet the electricity demand across North America over the next ten years. This 2022 LTRA also identifies reliability trends, emerging issues, and potential risks that could impact the long-term reliability, resilience, and security of the BPS.
The findings in this 2022 LTRA are vitally important to understand the reliability risks to the North American BPS as it is currently planned and as it is being shaped by government policies, regulations, consumer preferences, and economic factors. Energy systems and the electricity grid are undergoing
unprecedented change on a scope,scale, and speed that challenges the ability to foresee—and design for—their future states. This report contains future energy sufficiency metrics that serve as guideposts for the reliability of the North American electric grid on its current trajectory. It also describes the
relevant trends that are propelling the grid’s transformation and have the potential to alter the ability of the BPS to service the energy needs of communities and industries in North America.

High Risk Areas
Most areas are projected to have adequate electricity supply resources to meet demand forecasts associated with normal weather. However, areas shown in red (high risk) in Figure 1 do not meet resource adequacy criteria, such as the 1-day-in-10 year load-loss metric during periods of the assessment horizon. This indicates that the supply of electricity for these areas is more likely to be
insufficient in the forecast period and that more firm resources are needed. The following is a summary of the high-risk areas (details are discussed in later sections of this 2022 LTRA):
 In the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) area, the previously-reported reserve margin shortfall has advanced by one year, resulting in a 1,300 MW capacity deficit for the summer of 2023. The projected shortfall continues an accelerating trend since both the 2020 LTRA and the 2021 LTRA as older coal, nuclear, and natural gas generation exit the system faster than replacement resources are connecting.
 NPCC-Ontario also continues to project a reserve margin shortfall in 2025 and beyond. The capacity deficit of 1,700 MW is driven by generation retirements and lengthy planned outages at nuclear units undergoing refurbishment.
 Resource additions in the California/Mexico (CA/MX) part of WECC are alleviating capacity risks, but energy risks persist. Planned reserve margins meet annual reserve margin targets for the duration of the 10‐year horizon. However, overall variability in both the resource mix and demand profile contributes to shortfall risk periods, mainly in summer months around sunset, when expected supplies are not sufficient to meet the demand.

Elevated Risk Areas
Extreme temperatures and prolonged severe weather conditions are increasingly impacting the BPS. Extreme weather impacts the system by increasing electricity demand and forcing generation and other resources off-line. While a given area may have sufficient capacity to meet resource adequacy requirements, it may not have sufficient availability of resources during extreme and prolonged weather events. Therefore, long-duration weather events increase the risk of electricity supply shortfalls.
In many parts of North America, peak electricity demand is increasing, and forecasting demand and its response to extreme temperatures and abnormal weather is increasingly uncertain. Electrification and distributed energy resource (DER) trends can be expected to further contribute to demand growth and sensitivity to weather patterns. Specifically, electrification of residential heating requires the system to serve especially high demand on especially cold days.
Electricity supplies can decline in extreme weather for many reasons. Generators that are not designed or prepared for severe cold or heat can be forced off-line in increasing amounts. Wide area weather events can also impact multiple balancing and transmission operations simultaneously that limit the availability of transfers. Fuel production or transportation disruptions could limit the amount of natural gas or other fuels available for electric generation. Wind, solar, and other variable energy resource (VER) generators are dependent on the weather.